Thinking about THEY.

There are lots of reasons that people don’t question claims, and most of them fall into the bucket of one logical fallacy or another. There’s the Argument from Personal Incredulity: I just can’t believe that xxx could be right, so it must be this other thing that I understand better. There’s the Argument from Ignorance: We don’t know everything about xxx, so yyy is probably true. Then there’s one of my favorites: the Argument from Authority: Well, So-and-So said so, and she ought to know, she’s an expert!

On the subject of experts, briefly, James Randi is fond of discussing the lofty title of PhD this way: When a PhD receives her degree, on that paper is a chemical that is absorbed by the skin, and affects a part of the brain in the speech center. At that point, the post-doc is prevented from saying two specific phrases: “I don’t know.” and “I was wrong.” But, he is also quick to point out how often and how well PhDs have been fooled by the simplest of magic tricks. The investigations into Uri Geller and Project Alpha are two that come to mind.

So we see that even when in one’s area of expertise, it is still possible to be fooled. Even more important, most scientists I have ever talked to admit that they were fooled at times, and that realizing they were wrong was usually what put them on the correct path to begin with. It’s an old story. (Argument from Antiquity?)

But what about an expert who is never wrong? One who is not only never subject to peer review, but one who need never face the consequences of being wrong? Even, we might go so far as to say, one who is not only an expert on absolutely everything from treating the common cold to fixing a broken fuse, but who is so far beyond reach that we cannot even ask them a simple probing question?

You got it. I’m talking about THEY.

You know what THEY say, don’t you? THEY say it’s going to rain tomorrow. THEY say that you’ll go blind doing that. THEY say it’s better to plant in the fall than in the spring. THEY say that death is the leading cause of funerals. But be careful! You never know when THEY are watching! There are some things that THEY just don’t want you to know. THEY could come for you any time THEY want to. THEY have your best interests in mind, and if you don’t believe it, THEY will make you.

The problem with THEY is two-fold, I think. It’s both an Argument from Authority and an Argument from Popularity at the same time. Supposedly THEY have been saying this for a some time, and everyone believes them, so THEY must be right. (Feed a cold, starve a fever, anyone?) I find that usually, when someone brings out the authority of THEY, and I venture to ask exactly who THEY are, I usually get some blanket answer of, ‘everyone’. The Authority dissolves and the Popularity replaces it. Of course, I don’t think that one particular argument is any better than the other. They’re both logical fallacies, after all.

I do think, though, that the popularity argument is an easy fallback for the authority argument, and a blatant tell against the strength of a claim. Taking away a specific target, the Authority, and replacing it with something much more nebulous. In my admittedly brief experience with discussing THEY, I’ve found it useful to sometimes respond with “Well, THEY used to think the Earth was flat.” This drops the Authority and Popularity arguments in one shot, though it may take a few more such responses before THEY get the hint. And I usually try to source my counterpoints as best as I can, giving someone something to look up, rather than relying on my own small experience in this world.

After all, I am certainly no expert.

As always, any thoughts or comments are appreciated.